時論廣場》顛覆臺灣大選：誰從假訊息中受益？（方恩格）

內政部長林右昌（左二）出席「第16任總統副總統暨第11屆立法委員選舉治安維護聯合指揮所」揭牌儀式，林致詞表示，揭牌活動除宣示貫徹維護選舉治安決心，再次強調「阻絕境外勢力、資金介入選舉」、「杜絕假訊息干擾、影響選舉公平」、「嚴查賄選、斷絕賭盤」和「防止暴力、嚴密維安」等4項重點工作。（張鎧乙攝）

「法務部調查局查獲非法資金110億新臺幣。這筆境外資金被用來資助特定的候選人，試圖影響1月13日的總統大選。」一篇於10月27日發表在《臺北時報》的文章中如此描述，並援引了調查局官員的警告，指出有境外勢力正在利用遠程資助、網絡博彩和認知戰來影響明年的總統和立委選舉。文章進一步聲稱，法務部「詳細說明了這筆境外資金的使用方式，包括透過臺商向候選人捐款、爲寺廟慈善活動捐款、使用虛擬帳戶按贊特定候選人的貼文，以及透過未註冊的銀行或加密貨幣將資金移轉給候選人。

這篇文章的寫法給人的感覺是，法務部調查局沒收了由中國大陸匯入臺灣用於影響大選的新臺幣110億元。這讓筆者想起2018年11月臺灣地方選舉前夕一篇刊登在《臺北時報》上的文章，該文稱「組織性犯罪集團疑似是中國政府用來金援親中組織和政黨新臺幣350億的主要渠道；這筆資金也被用來開展宣傳活動，以試圖顛覆九合一選舉的結果。」

筆者在去年地方選舉前的一篇評論中解釋說，媒體曾向警政署和調查局詢問2018年《臺北時報》文章中提到的金額，然而他們回覆並沒有這方面的情報，《臺北時報》的報導純屬揣測。不幸的是，許多外國學者引用《臺北時報》的文章，作爲中國花費新臺幣350億影響2018年臺灣地方選舉的證據，儘管這件事並沒有發生。事實可能是，350億可能就是2018年地方選舉的賭注。

如今，在2024年總統大選之前，某些媒體再次放出中國將花費鉅額資金影響臺灣選舉的消息。爲什麼媒體（和外國人）相信中國大陸會在臺灣選舉上投入如此大的資金？有幾個可能的原因。

首先，這與一些人的看法是一致的，那就是中國實際上對誰贏得總統大選或獲得立法院多數席次有所偏好，並且中國會不惜一切代價幫助該政黨，包括投入大量資金。假使這件事情屬實，那麼從明顯增加的電視或公車上的廣告、宣傳候選人的看板數量便可以看出這一點；但對這些人來說，事實爲何似乎不是那麼重要。

其次，有些人認爲，任何投票給某特定政黨的人都是被中國洗腦的，是中國認知戰的受害者，或者是支持統一的。雖然對選民做出如此廣泛的概括是不民主的，但這是某些媒體、評論家或學者對臺灣選民所做出的概括評論。

第三，這是民進黨害怕萬一失去總統寶座、立法院多數席次，或兩者兼失兼失時的主動防禦措施，而這種失敗可以用「中國花費大量資金來影響選舉」的認知戰來給他們找臺階下。

事實上，調查局最近沒收這110億的來源，大概就是每天發生的這些活動，包括企業家試圖在銀行體系外隱藏他們在中國大陸或臺灣賺取的資金、使用地下匯款服務、賭徒洗錢的資金，或有組織犯罪透過一系列非法活動賺取的資金。當然，在被沒收的110億新臺幣中，有一部分可能會是2024年選舉的賭盤。無論如何，中國大陸不太可能試圖花費110億來影響臺灣的總統和立委選舉。

根據我們在臺灣觀察的經驗，這次選舉和其他選舉一樣，都會出現假新聞、網軍散播假訊息以及其他影響選民投票的行爲。經驗也告訴我們，臺灣所有的政黨都試圖使用這些工具，而當他們這樣做時，幕後指使者不一定是中國大陸。王立強事件甚至也有可能重演；亦即在大選前幾周，有人會以毫無根據的言論干涉選舉。過去4年對王立強所謂「間諜頭目」向心夫婦的起訴失敗，給我們所有人一個教訓，那就是在有任何指控干涉選舉時，我們應該要求提供足夠的證據。

歸根結底，臺灣選民是明智的，他們會透過民主程序做出決定。無論是勝方或敗方，都應該尊重選民的意願。

（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席）

Taiwan National Election Subversion: Who Benefits From Fake News?

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

“MJIB seizes NT$11bn in illegal funds. Offshore funding is being used to finance attempts to influence the Jan. 13 elections, including funneling money to select candidates”.

This appeared in a Taipei Times (part of the Liberty Times media group) article published on October 27, 2023, and cites officials at the Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau as warning that foreign actors are using remote funding, Internet betting and cognitive warfare to influence next year’s presidential and legislative elections. The article further alleges that the Ministry of Justice “detailed how offshore funding is being used, including making donations to candidates via Taiwanese businesspeople, contributing to temple charity events, using dummy accounts to “like” specific candidates’ posts and funneling funds to candidates through unregistered banks or cryptocurrency.”

The way this article is written gives the impression that Taiwan’s Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau confiscated NT$11,000,000,000 that the mainland remitted into Taiwan to spend on election influence activities.

It reminds this author of the article that appeared in the Taipei Times in November 2018, prior to Taiwan’s local election that year, which claimed “It is suspected that organized crime syndicates are a primary conduit for the Chinese government to funnel an estimated NT$35 billion (US$1.13 billion) in financial support to pro-China organizations and political parties to run propaganda campaigns in an attempt to subvert the nine-in-one elections.”

In a commentary prior to last year’s local election, this author explained that the China Times asked both the Ministry of the Interior National Police Administration, and the Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau, about the dollar amount cited in the Taipei Times article in 2018. Their reply was that they have no such intelligence, and that the Taipei Times report was speculation.

Unfortunately, many foreign scholars cited the Taipei Times article as proof that China spent NT$35,000,000,000 to influence the 2018 local elections, even though no such thing happened. The truth is probably that NT$35,000,000,000 is the amount gambled on the 2018 local elections.

And now, prior to the 2024 local elections, certain media are again repeating accusations about the amounts of money China will spend to influence an election in Taiwan.

Why do media (and foreigners) believe that China is spending such large amounts of money on Taiwan’s election? There are several possible reasons.

First, it’s consistent with some people’s belief that China actually has a preference for who wins the presidency or obtains a majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, and that China will do anything to help that party including the expenditure of a large amount of money. It doesn’t matter that the amount of money allegedly spent by China would be so large that it would be obvious by an increase in the amount of advertising on television or on buses, or the number of banners and billboards promoting candidates.

Second, it’s consistent with some people’s belief that anyone who votes for certain political parties is brainwashed by China, a victim of China’s cognitive warfare, or is pro-unification. Although it is undemocratic to make such broad generalizations about voters, it is a generalization that certain media, commentators or scholars will make about Taiwan voters.

Third, it’s a pro-active defensive measure in case the Democratic Progressive Party loses either the presidency, its majority in the Legislative Yuan, or loses both. Such loses will be explained by China having spent large amounts of money to influence the election.

The truth is probably that the source of this NT$11,000,000,000 recently confiscated by the Investigation Bureau is the kind of activities that unfortunately occur every day. This includes businesspeople trying to hide from the banking system money they have earned in either the mainland or Taiwan and who use "underground" remittance services, funds spent by gamblers, or funds earned by organized crime in a range of illegal activities.

Certainly, some of the gambling money in the confiscated NT$11,000,000,000 is money gambled on the 2024 election. Regardless, it is unlikely China attempted to spend NT$11,000,000,000 to influence the presidential and legislative elections.

From our experience in Taiwan, we know that this election like other elections will have fake news, “online warriors” spreading disinformation, and other actions to influence how voters vote. Our experience also tells us that all of Taiwan’s political parties attempt to use these tools, and when they do, it is not necessarily the mainland who is behind it. There might even be a repeat of the Wang Liqiang incident, where weeks before the election, someone makes unsubstantiated claims of election interference. The failed prosecution of Wang Liqiang’s alleged “spymaster” Xiang Xin over the past four years is a lesson to all of us that we should demand sufficient evidence when allegations about election interference are made.

Ultimately, Taiwan’s voters are wise, and they will make their decisions in a democratic process. Both the winning side, and the losing side, should respect the will of the voters.