紐時賞析／俄羅斯按兵不動也沒損失…烏克蘭戰場今年幾無進展

一名烏克蘭國家衛隊隊員去年6月在烏東戰場陣亡，但數週前才確認遺體身分。他的父母（中）9月底隨基輔的出殯隊伍踽踽而行。（紐約時報）

Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One.

烏克蘭戰場今年無人取得進展

The front line in Ukraine changed little in the winter. Russia aimed to capture the entirety of the Donbas, but it only inched forward.

在烏克蘭前線，整個冬季沒有太大變化。俄羅斯目標是拿下整個頓巴斯地區，但只取得些微進展。

Ukraine has made minimal gains in its counteroffensive. Dense Russian minefields and fortifications have made every attack extremely costly.

烏克蘭的反攻只取得些微進展。俄軍密集的雷區與防禦工事，使得烏軍每一次攻擊都付出慘重代價。

Despite nine months of bloody fighting, less than 500 square miles of territory have changed hands since the start of the year. A prolonged stalemate could weaken Western support for Ukraine.

今年以來，儘管雙方歷經9個月血戰，俄烏控制區域的變化不到500平方英里。僵局若拖延，西方盟國對烏克蘭的馳援恐會減弱。

Both sides started the year with lofty ambitions: Russia wanted to capture the eastern Donbas region, while Ukraine aimed to split Russian forces with an attack in the south.

雙方陣營年初都設下遠大目標：俄軍想攻佔烏東頓巴斯地區，烏軍則企圖分散俄軍兵力，從南部展開攻勢。

Neither offensive has gone to plan. The front line, after months of combat and heavy casualties, remains largely unchanged.

但雙方攻勢都無法按計策進行。歷經數月戰鬥與大量傷亡，俄烏戰事前線大致上沒有改變。

Less territory changed hands in August than in any other month of the war, according to an analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War. While Ukraine made small gains in the south, Russia took slightly more land overall, mostly in the northeast.

戰爭研究所數據分析顯示，8月是俄烏戰爭以來控制區域變化最少的一個月。雖然烏軍在南部戰場略有所獲，但整體而言俄軍攻下的土地比烏軍略多，其中大多在東北部。

Across the front line, every mile of territory has been a grinding fight, with no repeat of the rapid breakthrough that Kyiv managed in Kharkiv in September 2022, when Russia’s defenses collapsed after a surprise Ukrainian counterattack.

前線每一英里土地都陷入苦戰。去年9月烏軍在哈爾科夫發動奇襲反攻、擊潰俄軍防線並迅速取得突破性進展的類似捷報，再沒出現。

Russia and Ukraine have faced similar challenges this year. Both sides are fighting for positions that have remained largely entrenched for months or even years in some parts of eastern Ukraine. Seasoned troops and commanders who were killed earlier in the war have been replaced with new recruits who often lack sufficient training.

俄國與烏克蘭今年面臨相似的困境。在烏東部分地區，雙方都想攻下敵方數個月乃至數年來大抵堅守的陣地。雙方在戰爭初期陣亡的老練部隊與軍官，也由通常缺乏足夠訓練的新兵取代。

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has struggled to push forward across the wide-open fields in the south. It is facing extensive minefields and hundreds of miles of fortifications — trenches, anti-tank ditches and concrete obstacles — that Russia built in the winter to slow Ukrainian vehicles and force them into positions where they could be more easily targeted.

烏克蘭的反攻難以在烏南廣闊的田野推進。他們面臨密集雷區與綿延數百英里的防禦工事，俄軍在冬天建造了戰壕、反戰車壕溝與混凝土障礙物等，意圖拖慢烏軍車輛，並迫使它們開到更容易遭瞄準的位置。

When both sides’ gains are added up, Russia now controls nearly 200 square miles more territory in Ukraine compared with the start of the year. Russia controls about 18% of Ukraine — a swath of land larger than Switzerland.

綜觀雙方斬獲，俄國控制的烏克蘭土地較年初增加了近200平方英里。俄國如今掌控約18%的烏克蘭土地，面積比瑞士還大。

Rather than seeking rapid gains, the Russian military appears to be comfortable holding the territory it already controls, according to Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in war studies at King’s College London. “It’s not losing anything by not moving forward,” she said.

專攻戰爭研究的倫敦國王學院博士後研究員馬利娜．米隆表示，俄軍似乎更安於保住已掌控的土地，不求快速取得進展。米隆說，「他們按兵不動也沒損失」。

文／Josh Holder　譯／陳曉慈