紐時賞析／川普兩度遭暗殺未遂 美政治暴力問題已失控？未必

美國前總統川普今年7月在賓州巴特勒造勢活動遇刺地點。（紐約時報）

Political Violence Problem in U.S.? Data Is Mixed.

美國政治暴力問題已然失控？未必

When former President Donald Trump was nearly assassinated in Pennsylvania in July, a Dartmouth College political scientist named Sean Westwood happened to be in the middle of a research project asking Americans about political violence.

前總統川普7月在賓州差點被暗殺時，達特茅斯學院一個名叫威斯伍德的政治學家正在進行一項研究，詢問美國人政治暴力相關問題。

At the time, many feared that the shooting would lead to a growing appetite for more violence.

當時，許多人憂心，這起槍擊案將導致人們對更多暴力的興趣升高。

But Westwood and his colleagues found the opposite. In the weeks after the attack, Americans’ support for partisan violence, and murder specifically, diminished — and fell most sharply among Republicans who identify with Trump.

但威斯伍德和他的同事發現相反狀況。那起攻擊事件發生後數週內，美國人對於黨派暴力的支持降低，特別是對謀殺，而且在認同川普的共和黨人中降得最明顯。

Americans are still exceptionally hostile about people who disagree with them on politics, but “an assassination attempt did not inflame the tensions,” the authors write in a forthcoming paper in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

研究作者們在即將發表於「美國國家科學院院刊」的論文中寫道，美國人對政治上和他們意見不同的人仍特別有敵意，但「一起謀刺事件並未激起緊張局勢」。

Two unsuccessful attempts on Trump’s life, a daily barrage of violent threats against public officials of all stripes and finger-pointing from both parties have fueled the impression that the country’s politics are spinning out of control.

兩次刺殺川普未遂事件、日常一連串對各類公職人員的暴力威脅及兩黨互相指責，加強政治失控的印象。

But some common assumptions about political violence in America are not reinforced by recent data, according to several new studies.

但多項新研究指出，一些對美國政治暴力的普遍假設，沒有被數據進一步證實。

Instances of extremist violence have actually declined in recent years by some key measures. Although some Americans continue to say they approve of political violence, support for the most serious types of violence has not increased amid election-related tensions this year.

一些關鍵指標顯示，極端主義暴力事例近年來其實正在減少。雖然一些美國人持續表示他們支持政治暴力，但今年關於選舉的緊張局勢中，對於最嚴重類型暴力的支持沒有增加。

And neither apocalyptic political rhetoric nor extraordinary events over the past few years have produced eruptions of political violence of the sort that many feared would become more commonplace after the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

而且，過去幾年無論是末日式政治言論，還是意想不到的事件，都沒有引爆許多人所擔心2021年1月6日國會暴亂後會更普遍的那類政治暴力。

In short, even amid an explosive political climate and some high-profile incidents, politics may not be becoming broadly more violent.

總之，即使處於一觸即發的政治情勢和一些備受關注的事件中，大體上而言，政治可能並未變得更暴力。

Such findings come with many caveats. Political violence in the United States remains rare, leaving relatively few data points to study. Trend lines can vary widely depending on the how you define violence and what questions you try to answer.

這類發現伴隨許多警告。美國政治暴力事件仍然少見，導致可供研究的相關數據相對較少。趨勢線差異可能很大，取決於如何定義暴力，及嘗試回答怎樣的問題。

In the United States as in other countries, recorded acts of right-wing political violence have been deadlier than left-wing violence. But Trump, not President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris, has been the target of two apparent assassination attempts this summer.

美國和其他國家一樣，有紀錄的右派政治暴力一直比左派致命。但川普成爲今夏兩起暗殺企圖的目標，而非總統拜登或副總統賀錦麗。

Those attempts are also a stark reminder that such nation-transforming tragedies do not require many people — or even more than one.

這些企圖也清楚提醒人們，這類徹底改變國家的悲劇不需很多人蔘與，甚至只要一人就行。

文／Charles Homans　譯／羅方妤