方恩格專欄》與川普政府打交道應避免做的事
圖爲川普提名的內閣人選。（中時資訊網製作）
川普贏得了最近的選舉，並將於2025年1月20日就任成爲美國下一任總統。
福斯新聞上週發表一篇題爲〈川普內閣友臺，向中國發出強烈訊號〉的文章指出，川普任命參議員盧比歐爲國務卿是「對中國直言不諱」，如果盧比歐成爲國務卿，「對中國來說就是一個問題」。關於駐聯合國大使海莉的提名，福斯新聞援引一位專家的話說，海莉將「致力利用美國在整個聯合國系統的財政援助，去除中國的惡劣影響。」
公平地說，臺灣應該對川普外交政策團隊的最初選擇感到欣慰，尤其是川普稍早表示臺灣應該在國防上投入更多資金或指責臺灣竊取美國半導體產業時，臺灣感到憂心。然而，基於多種原因，臺灣不應對川普的勝利或誰將在川普政府任職反應過度。相反，賴清德政府應該避免採取一些行動，並在與川普政府打交道時保持耐心。
臺灣該避免做什麼？我想到了幾件事。
一、不要相信或僱用「川普身邊的竊竊私語者」(Trump Whispers)：臺灣政府（以及遠景基金會等官辦智庫）已經向遊說者和顧問支付大量資金，以建議臺灣如何應對美國政府。可以理解的是，如果共和黨控制白宮、參議院和衆議院，臺灣應該僱用更多的共和黨說客而不是民主黨說客。不過，臺灣要小心，不要僱用「川普私語者」。
這些人號稱與白宮有特殊聯繫，並聲稱擁有解釋川普對特定問題想法的特殊才能。這種人確實存在，而且他們收取非常高的服務費用。不過，臺灣與第一個任期的川普政府合作良好，川普的外交政策和國家安全團隊將包括許多「抗中保臺」的官員。換句話說，川普政府將對臺灣非常友好，無需爲「川普私語者」支付昂貴的費用。
二、不要急於採購武器軍備：近日，有臺灣媒體報導稱，臺灣計劃向川普政府提出價值150億美元的武器購買請求。如此大筆採購的目的之一就是擔心川普希望臺灣繳交「保護費」。然而，僅僅因爲川普在接受採訪時所說的一句話就倉促購買武器是非常愚蠢的。
我們知道，如果臺灣在沒有仔細考慮整個局勢的情況下購買武器，會發生什麼事。2019年，川普政府批准向臺灣出售108輛M1A2T艾布蘭坦克。然而，臺灣與中國進行坦克戰的可能性很低，臺灣本來可以把錢花在更適合的武器上。2021年，拜登政府批准向臺灣出售40門155毫米M109A6中型自走榴彈砲。然而，有充分的理由說明，臺灣使用直升機運輸的拖曳式火砲比自走砲會更好。不管怎樣，由於生產延遲和其他考慮，這次銷售被取消，臺灣把錢花在其他武器系統上。
整體而言，除了F-35戰鬥機等某些武器外，如果臺灣是願意的買家，川普政府也會是願意的賣家。不過，賴政府沒有必要急於提出武器採購請求，任何採購請求都應仔細考慮，以適合臺灣的國防需求。
三、臺企不宜急於赴美投資：川普執政期間，臺企開始擴大對美投資，通常被稱爲「友岸外包」(friendshoring)，因爲川普要求外國企業在美國生產，以及後來川普對中國製造的產品徵收額外關稅開始的「貿易戰」。
臺灣最引人注目的投資是鴻海在威斯康辛州的計劃。最終，鴻海在威斯康辛州的計劃無論是生產量還是僱用人數都未能達到最初的目標，不得不與威斯康辛州政府重新談判。臺灣企業可能對川普領導下的關稅增加感到緊張，這是可以理解的。有報導稱，川普可能會取消根據《晶片與科學法案》給予臺積電的補貼，儘管拜登政府於2024年11月15日與臺積電敲定了協議。不過，臺灣企業不急於決定擴大對美投資，而應等待川普政府的關稅和製造業激勵政策公佈。
四、不要急於用「堅若磐石」來形容美臺關係：蔡英文政府有稱美臺關係「堅如磐石」的習慣，賴政府也延續了這個習慣。整體而言，拜登政府執政期間兩國關係良好，川普政府執政期間關係將更加密切。但一再稱兩國關係「堅若磐石」並不會讓兩國關係更加緊密。無論如何，隨着美國新政府的上臺，也許是時候用一個新的口號來描述兩國關係了。
五、在沒有評估利益和風險的情況下，不要接受與川普的電話：上個月，筆者在《中國時報》上寫了一篇關於賴總統與美國總統當選人通話的好處和風險的文章。發出這樣的呼籲有許多充分的理由，因爲中國將如何反應是個變數。如果川普願意接電話，賴清德應該仔細考慮利弊，若僅出於公關目的而打電話，並不能證明這種風險是合理的。
在川普政府第一任期，臺灣與美國的雙邊關係非常好，臺灣有充分的理由相信，在川普新政府執政期間，也會出現同樣的情況。不過，臺灣應該始終優先考慮自己的利益，而不是急於考慮川普政府的利益。川普也會同意每個國家都應該優先考慮自己的利益！
（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席）
Taiwan Should Not Overreact to Trump Victory
By Ross Darrell Feingold
@RossFeingold
Donald Trump won the recent election and on January 20, 2025 will become the next president of the United States.
An article published in Fox News this past week was headlined “Trump cabinet picks delight Taiwan, send strong signal to China”. The article noted that the nominee for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, “is blunt on China” and that if Rubio becomes the Secretary of State, it “is a problem for China”. With regard to the nominee for Ambassador to the United Nations Elise Stefanik, an expert cited by Fox News said that Stefanik will “work toward leveraging American financial assistance across the United Nations system to root out Chinese malign influence".
It’s fair to say that Taiwan should be relieved at the initial selections for Trump’s foreign policy team, especially after earlier concerns in Taiwan when Trump said Taiwan should spend more on its defense or he accused Taiwan of stealing the American semiconductor industry.
However, for several reasons, Taiwan should not overreact to Trump’s victory or who will serve in the Trump Administration. Instead, the President William Lai’s Administration and Taiwan should avoid several actions and be patient in its dealings with the new Trump Administration.
What should Taiwan avoid doing? Several things come to mind.
1. Do not believe, or hire, “Trump Whispers”: The Taiwan government (as well as government run think tanks such as the Prospect Foundation) already pay a lot of money to lobbyists and consultants to advise Taiwan in how to deal with the United States government. Understandably, if the Republicans control the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives, it would be appropriate for Taiwan to hire more Republican lobbyists than Democratic lobbyists.
However, Taiwan needs to be careful not to hire “Trump Whisperers”. These are people who claim to have special connections to the White House, and claim to have a special talent to explain Trump’s thinking on specific issues.
Such persons do in fact exist, and they charge very high fees for their services.
However, Taiwan successfully worked with the first Trump Administration, and Trump’s foreign policy and national security team will include many officials who are “tough on China, protect Taiwan”. In other words, the Trump Administration will be very friendly to Taiwan, and there is no need to pay an expensive fee for “Trump Whisperers”.
2. Do not rush to make weapons purchases: In recent days, there are reports in the Taiwan media that Taiwan plans to submit US$15,000,000,000 worth of weapons purchase requests to the Trump Administration. One purpose of such a large purchase is out of concern that Trump wants Taiwan to pay a “protection fee”.
However, it is very foolish to rush into weapons purchases simply because of something President Trump said in an interview.
We know what happens when Taiwan purchases weapons without carefully considering the entire situation. In 2019, the Trump Administration approved the sale of 108 M1A2T Abrams tanks to Taiwan. However, the likelihood that Taiwan will fight China in a tank battle is low, and Taiwan could have spent the money on weapons better suited for the kind of war that might be fought. In 2021, the Biden Administration approved the sale of 40 155mm M109A6 Medium Self-Propelled Howitzers to Taiwan. However, there are good reasons why Taiwan would be better off with helicopter-transportable, towed artillery, rather than self-propelled artillery. Regardless, due to production delays and other considerations, this sale was cancelled, and Taiwan spent the money on other weapons systems.
In general, other than certain weapons like the F-35 fighter aircraft, if Taiwan is a willing buyer, the Trump Administration will be a willing seller. However, there is no need for the Lai Administration to rush into a request for weapons, and any purchase request should be carefully considered so that it is appropriate for Taiwan’s defense needs.
3. Taiwan companies should not rush into making investments in the United States: During the first Trump Administration, Taiwan companies began to expand investments in the United States, often referred to as “friendshoring”, because Trump demanded that foreign companies manufacture in the United States, and later, because of the “trade war” that began after Trump imposed additional tariffs on products manufactured in China.
The most notable investment from Taiwan was Hon Hai’s project in Wisconsin. Ultimately, Hon Hai’s project in Wisconsin failed to achieve the original goals whether for the amount of goods manufactured or the number of people hired, and had to be renegotiated with the Wisconsin state government.
It is understandable that Taiwan companies might be nervous about increased tariffs under President Trump. There were reports about the possibility that Trump will rescind the subsidy awarded to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company under the “CHIPS and Science Act”, though on November 15, 2024 the Biden Administration finalized the agreement with TSMC.
However, Taiwan companies should not rush into decisions to expand investments in the United States, and instead should wait until the Trump Administration’s policies towards tariffs as well as manufacturing incentives are announced.
4. Do not rush to use the phrase “rock solid” to describe US - Taiwan relations: The government of Tsai Ing-wen had a habit of calling U.S. - Taiwan relations “rock solid”, a habit that the Lai Administration has continued. Generally, relations were good under the Biden Administration, and will be close under the Trump Administration. But repeatedly calling relations “rock solid” does not make the relations closer.
Regardless, with a new United States government, perhaps it’s time for a new slogan to describe relations.
5. Do not accept a phone call with Trump without first assessing the benefits and risks: Last month in the China Times, this author wrote about the benefits and risks of a phone call between President Lai and the winner of the presidential election. There are many good reasons to have such a call, but there also risks because of how China will react. If Trump is willing to have the call, President Lai should carefully consider the benefits and risks. Having the call for only public relations purposes might not justify the risk.
Bilateral relations between Taiwan and the United States were excellent under the first Trump Administration, and Taiwan has good reasons to believe the same will occur under the new Trump Administration. However, Taiwan should always prioritize its own interests and not rush to prioritize the interests of the Trump Administration. Trump would probably agree that each country should prioritize its own interests!