方恩格專欄》川普與賀錦麗之爭 善意不押寶
美國前總統川普（Donald Trump）上週四在共和黨全國代表大會上正式接受提名，而總統拜登（Joe Biden）則在上週日宣佈退出競選，並轉而支持賀錦麗（Kamala Harris）成爲民主黨的總統提名人。（合成圖／路透）
近幾周，美國總統大選的發展前所未有。首先，前總統川普與現任總統拜登之間的辯論落幕，大多數人認爲這對拜登來說是一場災難。其次是對前總統川普的暗殺未遂事件。隨後在共和黨全國代表大會上，川普正式被提名爲候選人，並宣佈參議員範斯將成爲他的副手。在共和黨全國代表大會期間，《彭博社》發表了對川普的採訪，其中川普評論了臺灣的國防以及半導體產業。接着，現任總統拜登宣佈他退出總統大選。最後，現任副總統賀錦麗在拜登的支持下，開啓了她的總統競選活動。
有鑑於美國在臺灣經濟及國防問題上所扮演的角色，這些事件無疑在臺灣引起了巨大的關注。臺灣應該如何應對這些事件呢？臺灣的政府及各界應該注意以下幾個方面：
一、臺灣政府不應選邊站：在2020年美國總統選舉中，儘管蔡政府發表聲明駁斥，但他們仍押寶川普連任成功，這也可以理解。川普政府對臺灣非常友好，包括同意向臺灣出售大規模且昂貴的武器，如F-16V戰機和M1A2戰車。此外，當時的美國衛生部長阿札爾訪問臺灣，而美國經濟成長、能源與環境次卿柯拉克也隨即來臺訪問。自1979年美國與中華民國斷交以來，這些美國高級官員的訪問是史無前例的。總體而言，川普政府的外交和國家安全團隊態度爲抗中保臺。
拜登政府上臺後，臺灣依舊持續歡迎前川普政府官員，如前國務卿蓬佩奧和柯拉克來臺訪問，無論拜登政府會如何看待這些與其政敵的互動。預計下週在臺北舉行的對華政策跨國議會聯盟（縮寫爲IPAC），將會有美國國會議員參加；這意味着臺灣政府將會有更多機會表明它更偏袒共和黨，因爲IPAC（態度較抗中）通常吸引更多的共和黨籍國會議員而非民主黨人。
二、對副總統賀錦麗說些好話：雖然目前無法預測美國總統選舉的結果，但不能排除賀錦麗會贏得選舉。臺灣政府可以通過說賀錦麗的好話來爲這個可能性做好準備。目前已經有些主流媒體發表了相關的頭條，例如《美國之音》的「一探賀錦麗對美國對中政策的看法」、《政客》的「賀錦麗對中國的影響」以及《彭博社》的「中國對賀錦麗擔任總統的期望」。
儘管賀錦麗的外交政策經驗有限，但在她擔任副總統的期間，曾多次訪問亞洲。2021年她訪問了越南和新加坡，2022年她訪問了日本和韓國，隨後又訪問了泰國和菲律賓，2023年她參加了在印尼舉行的東南亞國家協會(ASEAN)年度高峰會議。在2022年訪問日本期間，賀錦麗指責了中國是「破壞國際規則秩序中的關鍵要素」，並稱中國在東海、南海和臺灣海峽的行爲「令人不安」。雖然賀錦麗尚未成爲印太地區的專家，但她在近年來對該地區已經有了一定的瞭解，因此臺灣應該爲她當選的可能性做好準備。
三、不要扭曲美國政客的言論：臺灣的許多媒體報導稱，川普向臺灣索取「保護費」。然而，正如臺灣評論家張競指出的那樣，在《彭博社》的專訪當中，川普並未說出「保護費」這個詞。事實上，川普只是延續了他在總統任期內的一貫立場。無論是北大西洋公約組織成員國、日本還是韓國，川普都要求這些美國盟友在國防上投入更多的資金。川普這樣做是正確的，並且他也取得了成果。如果臺灣未來想避免川普或其他美國政客發表類似評論，臺灣需要做的事情很簡單：臺灣需要在國防上的投入，遠超過目前的國防預算。
四、臺積電股東不應反應過度：在川普接受《彭博社》採訪並表示臺灣「佔據了我們100%的半導體制造業」和「臺灣應該爲了國防付我們錢。你知道，我們與保險公司並無二致。臺灣沒有給我們任何東西。」之後，臺積電的股價下跌。無論是作爲候選人還是總統，川普的這些言論與爲何臺積電是一家優秀且賺錢的公司無關。儘管有些人猜測如果川普再度上任，他可能會取消晶片法案所提供的補貼；但目前沒有理由相信他會這麼做。
五、川普對臺灣人民表示瞭解：在《彭博社》的採訪中有個好消息，川普表示「我對臺灣人民非常瞭解，並且非常尊重他們」。筆者對川普聲稱他對臺灣人民非常瞭解感到驚訝。儘管川普在臺灣並沒有進行過業務，但他在鴻海於威斯康辛州設廠的談判期間認識了郭臺銘。
總之，即使賴政府實際上希望川普再度當選，臺灣在美國選舉中仍須保持中立。臺灣應像其他國家一樣，爲川普或賀錦麗的當選做好準備。臺灣沒有政治、軍事或經濟上的籌碼去賭美國選舉。然而，筆者同意川普的看法，臺灣應該在國防上投入更多籌碼！（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席，許淳恩翻譯）
Is Taiwan Taking Sides in US Election?
By Ross Darrell Feingold
Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad
X: @RossFeingold
In recent weeks, developments in the United States presidential election were unprecedented. First, there was the debate between former President Trump and current President Biden, which most people viewed as a disaster for Biden. Then there was the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. This was followed by the Republican National Convention at which Trump was formally nominated and he announced that Senator J.D. Vance would be his running mate. During the Republican National Convention, a Bloomberg interview with Trump was published, in which Trump commented about Taiwan’s national defense as well as Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. Then, current President Joe Biden announced he would withdraw from the presidential election. Finally, current Vice President Kamala Harris, with Biden’s endorsement, began her presidential campaign.
These events of course attracted an enormous amount of attention here in Taiwan, given the role of the United States in Taiwan’s economy and, of course, Taiwan’s national defense.
So how should Taiwan react to these events? There are several things that the Taiwan government, politicians, and the business world should keep in mind.
1. Taiwan Government Shouldn’t Take Sides: It’s understandable that in the 2020 U.S. presidential election that the Taiwan government, despite its denials, hoped that Trump would win re-election. The Trump Administration was very friendly towards Taiwan. This included agreeing to large (and expensive) weapons sales to Taiwan such as F-16 fighter planes and M1A2T Abrams Tanks. It also includes the visit to Taiwan of the then-Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, which was followed shortly after by the visit to Taiwan of the then-Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Keith Krach. Such high-level visits by U.S. government officials were unprecedented during the period after the United State derecognized the Republic of China in 1979. In general, officials on the Trump Administration’s foreign policy and national security teams were very tough on China, and very pro-Taiwan.
After the Biden Administration came into office, Taiwan has continued to welcome to Taipei former members of the Trump Administration, such as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Keith Kratch, regardless of how the Biden Administration might view such interactions with their political enemies.
With the meeting next week in Taipei of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which will be attended by Members of the U.S. Congress, there will be more opportunities for the Taiwan government to display that it is partial to Republicans, as IPAC (being tough on China), generally attracts more Republicans than Democrats.
2. Say Some Nice Things About Vice President Kamala Harris: Although at present it’s impossible to predict the U.S. presidential election result, it’s possible that Harris might win. The Taiwan government can prepare for that possibility by saying a few nice things about Harris. Already there are articles in major media with headlines such as in Voice of America “A look at Harris’ views on US policy toward China”, in Politico “What Kamala would mean for China” and in Bloomberg “What China expects from Kamala Harris presidency”.
Although Harris’ foreign policy experience is limited, during her tenure as vice president she has visited Asia several times. In 2021 she visited Vietnam and Singapore, in 2022 she visited Japan and South Korea and later in the year Thailand and Philippines, and in 2023 she visited Indonesia to attend an ASEAN summit. During Harris’ visit to Japan in 2022, she accused China of “undermining key elements of the international rules-based order” and called China’s behavior in the East China Sea, South China Sea and Taiwan Strait “disturbing.”
Although Harris is not yet an expert on the Indo-Pacific, she has learned a little bit about the region in recent years, and Taiwan should prepare for the possibility that she wins the election.
3. Don’t Twist the Words of U.S. Politicians: Many, or even most, media in Taiwan reported that Trump demanded “protection money” from Taiwan. However, as Taiwan commentator Chang Ching pointed out, in the Bloomberg interview Trump did not say the words “protection money”.
In fact, Trump was simply being consistent with his positions throughout his term as President. Whether North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries, Japan, or South Korea, Trump demanded that these allies of the United States spend more money on their national defense. Trump was correct to do this, and he achieved results. If, in the future, Taiwan wants to avoid similar comments from Trump or other U.S. politicians, what Taiwan needs to do is simple: Taiwan needs to invest in its national defense much more than the current national defense budget.
4. TSMC Shareholders Shouldn’t Overreact: TSMC’s share price fell after the publication of Trump’s interview with Bloomberg in which he said Taiwan “did take about 100% of our chip business” and “Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything”. Trump’s comments, whether as a candidate or as a president, are unrelated to the reasons why TSMC is a great (and profitable) company. Although some are speculating that a Trump Administration 2.0 would cancel the subsidy to be provided by the U.S. Commerce Department under the “Chips Act”, there’s no reason at this stage to believe he would do that.
5. Trump Knows the People Well: The good news in Trump’s interview with Bloomberg is that he said, with regard to Taiwan, “I know the people very well, respect them greatly.” This author was surprised by Trump’s statement that he knows the people of Taiwan very well. Trump has not done business in Taiwan, though he did get to know Terry Gou during the negotiations for Foxconn to build a facility in Wisconsin and through Gou’s visits to the White House.
Ultimately, Taiwan must remain neutral in the U.S. election even if the reality is that the Lai Administration wants a Trump Administration 2.0. Taiwan, just like any other country, should prepare for the possibility that Trump wins, as well as prepare for the possibility Harris wins. Taiwan doesn’t have the political, military or economic “chips” to gamble on U.S. elections. However, this author agrees with Trump, Taiwan should spend more of its “chips” on national defense!