大衆汽車集團在華尋路智電時代的新“ID”VW in search of new IDentit-E in China（附英文）
德國汽車巨頭在中國電動出行領域要“後來居上”。
作者 | 邢磊
大衆汽車集團在中國市場的電動出行攻勢正在緊鑼密鼓的進行中。
“摸着石頭過河”或許最適合描述這家德國汽車巨頭在這場攻勢中所採取的一系列措施。
大衆汽車集團（中國）CEO馮思翰博士
這句著名的格言用來描述中國在上世紀70年代末開始的改革開放。改革開放幾年後，大衆汽車集團成爲第一個進入中國市場的跨國汽車製造商。
桑塔納和捷達很快便成爲了中國老百姓出行的代名詞。自那以後，集團憑藉旗下大衆、奧迪、斯柯達、保時捷等多個品牌，成爲全球最大的汽車市場中銷量最高的跨國汽車製造商，領先優勢一直保持至今。
但那是傳統內燃機汽車（ICE）時代，大衆汽車和其他外國汽車製造商憑藉卓越的設計、質量、動力總成技術、營銷以及售後服務，在這一領域中將中國本土品牌擱置一地。中國本土品牌一直在奮力追趕，並試圖通過新能源汽車（包括插電式混合動力汽車和純電動汽車）來實現“換道超車”。
近40年後，中國品牌終於實現了“換道超車”，領跑新能源汽車市場。
隨着中國汽車市場在在新能源汽車方面的轉型，以比亞迪、五菱、蔚來、小鵬、理想等爲首的中國新興品牌在新能源汽車銷量和市場份額方面已經大幅超越外資品牌，而大衆汽車等跨國汽車製造商（除特斯拉以外）反而需要奮力追趕。
在河的一邊是老舊的、無聊的傳統內燃機汽車之戰，大衆汽車集團已佔據主導地位。而另一邊則是新的、令人興奮的新能源汽車（智能電動汽車）之戰，中國品牌已佔據主導地位。對一些中國品牌來說，過河的長途跋涉已接近尾聲，而像蔚來和小鵬這樣的品牌，從一開始就已經在河的另一邊開始了戰鬥，沒有過河的包袱。
河對岸等待大衆汽車集團的是一個宏偉的電動汽車目標：到2030年，集團計劃投資730億歐元用於電動化和數字化轉型，並在全球累計生產2600萬輛電動汽車，其中一半以上將來自中國；到2025年，集團計劃每年在中國銷售150萬輛電動汽車：到2030年，新能源汽車將佔據大衆汽車品牌在華銷量的一半以上；到2035年，新能源汽車將佔據集團在華銷量的一半以上；到2040年，集團計劃在全球主要市場的所有新售車輛將接近零排放。
大衆汽車ID.4榮獲“2021世界年度車”大獎， 並獲Euro NCAP五星最高評級
換句話說，在新興的智能電動汽車時代，大衆汽車集團希望其在中國生產和銷售的新能源汽車能代替上世紀90年代和2000年代的桑塔納和捷達成爲中國老百姓出行的新代名詞。
這將從基於大衆汽車集團爲純電動車專屬打造的MEB平臺所推出的ID.系列開始。到目前爲止，ID.家族已推出四款本土生產的車型並交付給客戶：基於全球車型ID.4 SUV的ID.4 X 和 ID.4 CROZZ；專供中國市場的7座SUV ID.6 X和ID.6 CROZZ；以及年底前上市的尺寸爲高爾夫大小的ID.3兩廂車。另外，與集團在傳統內燃機汽車時代大規模部署的經銷商網絡不同，ID.系列採取獨特的代理模式銷售與服務客戶。
這些都是大衆汽車集團在過河時摸的一些石頭，並試圖在新能源汽車之戰中後來居上，同時捍衛其在傳統內燃機汽車領域中的領導地位。目前集團在華市場份額約爲18%。
7月13日，大衆汽車集團管理董事會主席赫伯特·迪斯博士（Dr. Herbert Diess）在集團2030年戰略“NEW AUTO”發佈後接受媒體採訪時表示：“我們在新能源汽車市場領域將努力實現與內燃機汽車市場相似的市場份額。中國是我們的主要市場之一，我們將盡最大努力捍衛這一市場領先優勢。”
然而，這場以ID.家族爲首的攻勢起步並不順利。
摸着石頭
7月20日，大衆汽車宣佈，2021年上半年全球共交付170,939輛純電動車，是上年同期的兩倍多（+165.2%）。出人意料的是，歐洲市場交付量達到了128,078輛，同比增長156.3%，佔全球總量的四分之三。美國位居第二，交付了18,514輛，是上年同期的4倍多（+321.2%）。
而中國以18,285輛的交付排名第三，同比增長110%，佔集團全球交付量的10.7%，略低於美國。交付量約佔集團同期在華交付185萬輛汽車的 1%，低於造車新勢力蔚來、小鵬、理想以及哪吒汽車上半年的交付量；僅佔同期中國新能源汽車121萬輛銷量的1.5%左右；包括插電混動汽車在內的新能源汽車銷量爲 36,600 臺，約佔集團在華銷量的 2%，低於行業近10%的平均水平。
儘管二季度的純電動汽車交付量相比一季度翻番，超過 12,000 臺，但 ID. 4 X 和 ID. 4 CROZZ從3月底正式上市以來相對慢熱，兩款車型在4月和5月合計銷售分別只有一千多臺。儘管6月份的銷量有所好轉，交付量超過2900臺，但3個多月僅交付約6000臺ID.系列，還是低於了很多業內人士的預期。
爲什麼ID.4在中國的表現不如歐洲甚至美國，特別是考慮到其作爲首個國產的全球ID.車型投入了很多準備？這是一個業內很多人都在思考的問題，我相信沃爾夫斯堡也在問北京。
絕對不是設計問題，也不是質量問題（我們當然希望這永遠不會成爲一個問題）。這是一個產品配置問題和營銷問題，尤其考慮到大衆汽車集團在中國市場面臨與歐洲市場完全不同的競爭環境和消費羣體，特別是對智能化要求更高的中國用戶。
正式上市前，大衆汽車集團將ID.4的營銷瞄準了90後和Z世代的年輕首次購車用戶，這些用戶對最新的互聯等智能技術配置要求異常苛刻。然而，儘管20萬元左右的定價策略很具有競爭力，ID.4並未提供這些年輕消費者所期望的功能和用戶體驗，因此最初反應不溫不火。ID.4 的目標羣體應該是以換購或增購爲主的家庭和相對較成熟的用戶，對最前沿的配置和智能互聯功能方面相對沒那麼敏感。
ID.4，一車多能的純電SUV 滿足駕駛樂趣
"中國（玩家）的速度要快得多。您可能還注意到，首批製造商已經在測試甚至配備具有 L2+ 的自動駕駛功能。這肯定會在不遠的將來成爲一種趨勢，大衆汽車集團肯定會在這方面提供這些功能，”他說。
在銷售模式方面，馮思翰博士表示，在大衆汽車龐大的傳統經銷商體系下ID.系列採取獨家代理銷售模式是一個“學習過程，”它涉及透明度並提供與潛在客戶更好的接觸和溝通點。
“經過近兩年來與合資夥伴的緊張討論，我們決定建立代理制營銷模式，特別是我們的ID.或電動車車型，”他說。“對於我們在市場上看到的純電動汽車品牌來說，這或多或少都是新常態。當然，這對我們來說並不容易，因爲我們的經銷商系統採取傳統的特許經營制度。因此，對於所有參與者，包括我們的經銷商來說，這也是一個學習的過程。這還需要不斷調整，我們目前正在這樣做。”
他強調，大衆汽車集團在純電動汽車方面無意回到典型的批發模式，堅持代理制營銷模式的計劃是堅定的，因爲新能源汽車客戶本身就期待這種模式。馮思翰博士透露，集團也在擴大其ID.用戶觸點的足跡，如在一線和二線城市的ID. Hub和Pop Up展示中心，同時保持健康和有利潤空間的經銷商體系。
大衆汽車集團不得不面對中國智能電動汽車市場的另一個獨特特徵：即所謂的“啞鈴效應”。目前，微型電動汽車的價格遠遠低於10萬元人民幣，佔新能源汽車市場近40%的份額，銷量同比增長超過500%。另一端高檔電動汽車的售價在25萬至50萬元人民幣之間，增長速度也異常迅猛。售價爲10-25萬元的電動車所佔據的市場份額並不高，造成了中間小、兩頭大的“啞鈴效應。“
馮思翰博士說：“這與傳統內燃機汽車市場的銷售分佈完全相反：交易價格在8萬至25萬元人民幣之間的車型佔據大部分市場份額。所以我們必須掌握新常態。由於大衆汽車品牌佔據主流大衆類品牌的頂端，不算豪華品牌也不算入門品牌，當前的新能源汽車銷售分佈並不能反映我們品牌的定位。”
那麼問題在於，大衆汽車集團能否克服新能源汽車市場的“啞鈴效應”，利用現有和即將推出的ID.家族車型，達到可以與特斯拉和蔚來等相媲美的市場強大的地位？大衆汽車集團能否學會調整其代理模式以充分發揮優勢，並同時平衡其現有經銷商的利益？
大衆汽車專爲中國打造的ID.6於2021年全球首發
過河
幸運的是，就銷量而言，勢頭正在好轉。
6月份ID.4的訂單量超過了其交付量，有明顯的增長趨勢。而ID.6 X 在 6 月正式上市後的頭兩週內交付量超過 500 臺。
迪斯博士在7月22日的大衆汽車集團年度股東大會上表示：“大衆汽車品牌ID.系列在華銷量預計將比上月翻一番，從6月份的3000輛增加到7月份的6000輛左右。“ID.6 的初步銷售數據非常可觀。我們的目標是今年在華銷售8-10萬輛ID.家族的純電動汽車。”
迪斯博士在活動上重申，到2030年，中國將在大衆汽車整個戰略中發揮至關重要的作用。
“過去幾十年，我們一直是中國市場的領導者。今年上半年，我們保持了18%的市場份額以及較高的盈利能力。我們的目標是在電動車領域也達到同樣的地位，”他說。
顯然，這句話說起來容易做起來難。大衆汽車在加碼以ID.系列爲首的電動出行攻勢同時（馮思翰博士認爲，在競爭激烈的情況下，需要6-8個月才能實現銷售正常化），也在佈局電動化轉型戰略的其他重要環節。
大衆汽車集團與國軒高科戰略合作，推動電池電芯工業化生產
集團已在合肥和長春分別爲大衆汽車品牌和奧迪品牌建立新的外方控股新能源整車合資企業：奧迪一汽新能源以及大衆安徽。前者將於2024年開始生產PPE平臺爲基礎的電動汽車，後者將被打造成未來SSP平臺的本土生產基地，其中包含正在建設的新研發中心。集團還將藉助更多本土人才技能和能力進一步擴大在中國的業務。集團已與合作伙伴國軒高科達成協議在本土投產電芯。如今，已經有約1000名軟件工程師在中國爲集團汽車軟件公司CARIAD工作。通過CARIAD，該公司正在中國系統地培養其軟件技能，以便提供適合中國客戶需求的數字化和互聯化解決方案。
這些環節的執行在大衆汽車集團在華尋路智能電動車時代新“ID”的過程中至關重要。
（作者邢磊曾任《中國汽車要聞》主編，過去20年來一直報道中國汽車工業。他目前是一名獨立行業分析師/顧問，居住在美國麻州。）
【附】本文英文版：
VW in search of new IDentit-E in China
German giant coming from behind in China’s e-mobility game, can it lead?
– by Lei Xing
For Volkswagen Group, the old Chinese adage “cross the river by feeling the stones” 摸着石頭過河might best describe the German giant’s approach towards its e-mobility offensive in China.
Generally attributed to Deng Xiaoping, the adage is used as a metaphor to describe China’s approach towards the reform and opening up that kicked off at the end of the 1970s, just a few years before Volkswagen became the first major foreign automaker to enter the Chinese market.
Santanas and Jettas soon became ubiquitous and synonymous with mobility in China, and Volkswagen has been the leading foreign automaker in the world’s largest auto market ever since then with its namesake as well as Audi, Škoda & Porsche marques, among others.
But that was the internal combustion engine (ICE) era, when Volkswagen and other foreign automakers held the emerging Chinese brands at bay with superior design, quality, powertrain technologies, sales and marketing, distribution and aftersales service. Chinese brands, on the other hand, have been playing catch up the whole time and tried to “overtake the foreigners on a different path” 換道超車: new energy vehicles (NEVs), which includes both plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
It’s taken almost 40 years, but the Chinese brands seemed to have finally flipped the narrative.
As China embarks on an ambitious new path toward e-mobility, Chinese brands led by upstarts BYD, Wuling, NIO, Xpeng and others have “overtaken the foreigners” as far as NEV sales and market share are concerned, while foreign automakers like Volkswagen (with the exception of Tesla) are in an unfamiliar territory of trying to catch up from behind.
On one side of the river is the old, boring ICE game, which Volkswagen has dominated. On the other is the new, exciting NEV (aka smart EV) game which the Chinese have dominated. For some of these Chinese brands, the trek across the river is nearly complete. Others like NIO & Xpeng began their fortunes by starting off on the other side of the river.
As Volkswagen crosses the river, what awaits on the other side is an ambitious e-mobility goal: by 2030, it plans to invest €73 billion in electrification and digital technology and produce 26 million BEVs globally, more than half of which will come from China; by 2025, it plans to sell 1.5 million NEVs in China annually; by 2030, NEVs will account for more than half of the namesake brand sales in China, and by 2035, they will account for more than half of group sales in the country; and by 2040, the group plans to sell exclusively BEVs in all major markets in the world.
In other words, in the emerging e-mobility era, Volkswagen wants its NEVs produced & sold in China with the VW badge as ubiquitous, if not more than, the Santanas and Jettas of the 1990s and 2000s.
That starts with the ID. series based on Volkswagen’s MEB platform dedicated to BEVs. So far, four locally-produced ID. models have been launched and delivered to customers: the ID.4 X and ID4. CROZZ based on the global ID.4 SUV, and the larger China-exclusive ID.6 X and ID.6 CROZZ SUVs. The fifth model, the ID.3 compact hatch the size of a Golf, is launching later this year. An exclusive agency model, unlike the legacy dealer system it has deployed on a massive scale to sell its ICE vehicles, is in place to sell and distribute the ID. series and service their customers.
These are just some of the stones that Volkswagen has been feeling as it crosses the river, trying to catch up in the NEV game while defending its leadership position in the ICE game, one in which it currently holds a commanding 18% market share.
“We will fight to achieve a similar market share in EVs that we have in ICEs,” Volkswagen Group CEO Dr. Herbert Diess said in an interview on July 13 after the company announced its 2030 Strategy. “China is one of our home markets, and we will do the utmost to defend this position.”
The fight, however, has had a tough start.
Feeling the stones
On July 20, Volkswagen announced that it delivered 170,939 BEVs globally in the first half of 2021, more than twice as many as in the prior-year period (+165.2 percent). A surprise was the Group’s home market of Europe, where 128,078 BEVs were delivered, up 156.3 percent and accounting for three-quarters of the global total. The U.S. came in second, with 18,514 BEVs delivered, more than four times (+321.2 percent) the prior-year period. China was third with deliveries of 18,285 BEVs, up 110% year-on-year and accounting for 10.7 percent of the Group’s worldwide BEV deliveries, slightly behind the U.S.
To put the 18,285 BEV deliveries in China into different perspectives: they account for roughly 1 percent of the 1.85 million vehicles the group delivered during the same period; are lower than what Chinese smart EV startups NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto or NETA delivered year-to-date through to June; and account for just about 1.5 percent of the nearly 1.21 million NEVs sold overall in China during the period. Sales of NEVs including BEVs, on the other hand, were 36,600 units, accounting for about 2 percent of group sales, less than the industry average of close to 10 percent.
Granted that BEV deliveries in Q2 nearly doubled on a sequential basis over Q1 with more than 12,000 units delivered, the ID. series, in particular, stumbled out of the gate starting with the ID. 4 X & ID. 4 CROZZ models, each selling just a few hundred units in April and May, their initial full months of sales since market launch at the end of March. Though sales improved in June with more than 2,900 units delivered, the roughly 6,000 ID. series delivered in a little more than three full months on the market is certainly below expectation of many in the industry if not that of Volkswagen.
Why hasn’t the ID. 4 performed as well in China so far as it has in Europe or even the U.S., especially considering that so much preparation went into it as the first locally-produced ID. model spearheading Volkswagen’s e-mobility offensive in China? This is a question that many in the industry are pondering and I’m sure Wolfsburg is also asking Beijing.
It’s definitely not a design issue, nor is it a quality issue (we certainly hope this will never become an issue). It is, though, a product feature issue and a sales & marketing issue in a cutthroat competitive environment with demanding customers for smart EVs that Volkswagen does not yet face in Europe.
Pre-launch, Volkswagen marketed and targeted both ID. 4 versions at the young & the restless: post-90s and Gen-Z first-time buyers looking for the latest tech features, when in fact the models did not offer those features nor was user experience up to their expectation despite a competitive pricing strategy around the RMB200,000 point, hence the tepid initial response. What the ID. 4 should have targeted are families and mature buyers that are looking to trade-in their vehicles or make additional purchases, and may not be as sensitive when it comes to tech features.
Dr. Stephan Wöllenstein, CEO of Volkswagen Group China, hinted in an interview on July 15 that Volkswagen is somewhat behind in terms of offering the latest smart, intelligent connected EVs with partly or fully autonomous driving capabilities.
“China is at a much higher speed. You probably have also noticed that the first manufacturers are already testing the waters with L2+ automated driving functions,” he said. “This will certainly also become a trend in the not too far future and Volkswagen Group will certainly offer this in this respect.”
The exclusive agency sales model for the ID. series, which is about transparency and offering better touchpoints and communications with potential customers, has been a “learning process,” according to Dr. Wöllenstein.
“We have after intense discussion over the years with our joint venture partners, really decided on the agency model to come into place in particular with our ID. or electric models,” he said. “This is the new normal anyway for more or less all the pure NEV brands that we see in the market. It is of course not easy for us because of our legacy with our dealer system which is our traditional franchise system. So it is also a learning process for all parties involved, including our dealers. This also needs constant adjustment, which we are currently doing.”
Though he stressed that there is no intention to going back to the typical wholesale model and the plan to stick to the agency model is firm, as this is how customers for NEVs are expected to be treated. Volkswagen is also expanding its footprint of ID. stores such as ID. Hubs and pop-up stores in tier-one and tier-two cities, while maintaining healthy and profitable operation of 2,000 dealerships, according to Dr. Wöllenstein.
Another unique feature of the Chinese NEV market that Volkswagen has to confront is the so-called “dumbbell effect” – where currently the key drivers are micro EVs priced far below RMB100,000 that account for nearly 40 percent of the market and growing at more than 500 percent, and premium EVs priced between RMB250,000 to RMB500,000.
“This is completely opposite to the distribution of sales in the ICE market where the majority of cars sold are transacted between RMB80,000 and RMB250,000, a pretty unnatural pattern which we all have to master,” said Dr. Wöllenstein. “As Volkswagen is the top of volume brand and not so much premium or entry brand per se, this is a pattern which of course is not reflecting the positioning of our brand.”
So the question is, can Volkswagen overcome the “dumbbell effect” with its suite of existing and upcoming ID. models, and can it achieve the same strong position in the NEV game as electric-only brands like Tesla and NIO who have set the benchmark, and learn to adapt and tweak its agency model to full advantage while balancing the interests of its existing dealers?
Crossing the river
Luckily, things are looking up as far as volumes are concerned.
Order in-takes in June for the ID. 4 exceeded its delivery figure, pointing to a growth trend. Deliveries of the ID. 6 X exceeded 500 units in its first two weeks of sale in June.
“Sales of the ID. are expected to double compared with the previous month – from 3,000 in June to about 6,000 in July,” said Dr. Diess at Volkswagen Group’s Annual General Meeting on July 22. “And initial sales figures for the ID.6 are highly promising. We aim to sell a total of 80,000 to 100,000 electric cars from the ID. family in China by the end of the year.”
Dr. Diess reiterated at the event that China will play a crucial role in the success of Volkswagen’s entire strategy through 2030.
“We’ve been the unrivaled market leader in China in the past decades. We maintained our position in the first half of this year with a market share of 18 percent. And profitability is high. Our goal is to achieve the same position in the electric world, too,” he said.
Obviously, Dr. Diess & co. at Volkswagen knows this is easier said than done. As the company navigates this early phase of the e-mobility offensive led by the ID. portfolio, which Dr. Wöllenstein says needs about “6-8 months to normalize sales” amid an industry-wide offensive and fierce competition across all sectors, it’s also putting the pieces of the puzzle together to make the river crossing as smooth as it can be.
The group has secured majority stakes in electric mobility companies for Audi and the namesake Volkswagen brands for the first time. It is strengthening its key electric joint venture Volkswagen Anhui with a new factory and a new R&D Center, to make it the local hub for the future unified SSP mechatronics platform. Audi will produce electric vehicles based on the PPE platform for the Chinese market in Changchun under a majority-owned joint venture with FAW starting in 2024. It has invested in local battery production with partner Gotion. And with CARIAD, it is systematically building its software skills in China so that it can offer digital solutions tailored to the needs of Chinese customers.
These are crucial and execution will be paramount as Volkswagen searches for its new identity in China in the e-mobility age, one that will emerge and be clearer as it crosses the river by feeling the stones.
Lei Xing is former Chief Editor of China Auto Review, having covered the Chinese auto industry for the past 20 years. He is currently an independent analyst/consultant and resides in Massachusetts in the U.S.