一通電話影響臺美中關係 美準總統可能與賴清德通話？
▲ 2024美國總統大選將於11月5日登場。（圖／路透）
● 方恩格（Ross Darrell Feingold）／前美國共和黨海外部亞太區主席
美國將於11月5日舉行總統選舉，之後準總統將開始組成政府，並於2025年1月20日就職。
儘管美國大多數選民關注的焦點是經濟和非法移民，但美國新總統從上任第一天起就必須處理重要的外交政策議程。這項外交政策議程包括中東、緬甸、蘇丹和烏克蘭的戰爭。外交政策議程還包括與歐盟等朋友以及中國等競爭對手的貿易爭端。
當然，中美之間的分歧領域不僅包括貿易問題，還包括南海主權爭議、維護臺海和平、人權、香港事態發展等議題。
共和黨總統候選人、前總統川普經常談論中國，常常是威脅要將中國輸美商品的關稅提高到100％。現任副總統賀錦麗在8月的民主黨全國代表大會上的提名演說中簡短地提到了中國，並承諾她將確保「美國，而不是中國，贏得21世紀的競爭」。
▲ 川普曾在2016年與前總統蔡英文通話。（圖／總統府／路透）
準總統必須做出的第一個與中國有關的決定是，是否在轉接的過渡期間再度與臺灣的總統通話。例如川普於2016年12月2日選舉日至2017年1月20日就職日之間的轉接期間，與蔡英文總統通了電話。
筆者稱之爲涉華決定，而不僅僅是涉臺決定。有些人可能想將此問題視爲臺灣與準總統之間的雙邊問題來分析。但現實情況是，這樣的通話將對美中臺關係在接下來的幾個月乃至幾年裡產生重大影響。
準總統與賴清德總統可能通電話的原因包括：
一、先例：通話的先例是準總統川普和蔡總統通話時所建立的。大部分美中臺的關係是透過先例而創造的，例如臺灣總統過境美國，或是臺灣參加亞太經合組織（APEC）或亞洲開發銀行（ADB）等某些國際組織。同樣，臺灣無法參加國際民航組織（ICAO）、國際刑警組織（Interpol）、世界衛生組織（WHO）等其他國際組織也是有先例的，這些不太可能改變。
▲ 前總統蔡英文去年訪問中南美洲友邦，過境美國時，與時任衆議院議長麥卡錫會面。（圖／翻攝麥卡錫推特）
二、中國不能決定美國準總統與誰通話：準總統可以與任何他們希望會見或通話的人會面或通話。來自中國等外國的壓力不應成爲準總統與誰會面或通話的決定因素。
三、感謝臺灣：準總統可以感謝臺灣對美國的友誼。這包括從美國進口商品、臺積電等企業在美國的投資，當然也包括美國企業對臺灣的武器銷售。正如準總統川普在與蔡英文總統通話後在推特上發佈的那樣，「有趣的是，美國向臺灣出售了數十億美元的軍事裝備，但我不應該接受賀電。」
四、準總統可以向中國發出信號：準總統與賴總統之間的通話將向中國發出信號，即美國將像近年來一樣繼續支持臺灣。正如臺灣政府喜歡說的，臺美關係「堅如磐石」。不過，即使準總統與賴總統通話，準總統也可以重申，就職後，新總統將繼續致力於美國長期以來以《臺灣關係法》、美中三公報、及美國對臺六項保證爲基礎的一中政策。
五、準總統可以向世界其他地區發出信號：準總統與賴清德總統之間的通話也很有價值，可以向世界各地的盟友和敵人發出有關新總統將如何執行外交政策的信號。準總統很可能會在轉接期間與加拿大、日本、英國等盟國的代表會面或交談。將臺灣納入此一民主集團將發出一個訊號，表明新總統對美臺關係的重視。
▲ 臺灣政府喜歡說臺美關係「堅如磐石」。（圖／路透）
另一方面，也有可能導致無法通話的原因：
一、2016年通話只是「一次性」而非先例：對臺灣來說不幸的是，在2020年選舉日和2021年1月20日就職之間的過渡期間，準總統拜登沒有與蔡英文總統通話。就目前而言，本來可以成爲兩次先例的事件，可惜只有2016年的「一次性」事件。
二、如果賀錦麗獲勝，她仍然是現任副總統：如果賀錦麗當選成爲準總統，她仍將同時擔任美國副總統。她的老闆拜登總統可能會反對賀錦麗和賴清德總統的通話。儘管拜登政府採取了很多行動來表明對臺灣的支持，但仍然有一定的「紅線」不會跨越。例如，不同意將臺北經濟文化代表處更名爲「臺灣代表處」，以及與川普政府不同，不允許部長訪問臺灣。副總統賀錦麗和賴總統之間的通話可能同樣是拜登總統不會同意的。
三、對未來美中關係的影響：準總統可能希望以積極的基調開展對中關係，並希望未來在各種問題上合作。例如，如果川普當選，他可能想恢復與中國的貿易談判。如果賀錦麗當選，她可能希望在氣候變遷、減少從中國出口到美國的芬太尼、前體化學品的數量或其他問題上與中國合作。因此，準總統可能會拒絕與賴清德通話。
▲ 準總統可能希望以積極的基調開展對中關係，因此可能會拒絕與賴清德通話。（圖／達志影像／美聯社）
四、其他優先事項：從2024年11月5日選舉日到2025年1月20日就職典禮之間的10周內，準總統將有繁忙的議程。這包括爲新政府選擇閣員，以及與美國親密盟友的領導人會面或交談。對準總統來說，與賴總統的通話可能不是重要任務。
五、對臺海關係的影響：如果準總統與賴總統通話，中國一定會有反應。中國可能會透過說服臺灣僅存的外交盟友之一與中國斷交、採取貿易報復措施或在臺海周邊舉行軍事演習來回應。從今年5月20日賴總統就職後中國大規模的「聯合利劍2024A」軍演，或者最近賴總統國慶演講後的「聯合利劍2024B」來看，中國的軍演給臺灣軍隊帶來了巨大的壓力，因爲空軍、陸軍和海軍必須採取適當措施應對。
臺海關係已經處於低谷，美國準總統與賴清德總統通話只會導致兩岸關係惡化。也許對臺灣來說最安全的決定是告訴美國準總統：「謝謝你，但不用了！」
▲ 臺海關係已經處於低谷，美國準總統與賴清德總統通話恐怕只會導致兩岸關係惡化。（圖／路透）
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【英文版】
The United States will have its presidential election on November 5th, after which, the “President-Elect” will begin to form their government that will take office on January 20, 2025.
Although the focus of most voters in the United States is the economy and illegal immigration, the new United States president, from their first day in office, must deal with a significant foreign policy agenda. This foreign policy agenda includes wars in the Middle East, Myanmar, Sudan, and Ukraine. The foreign policy agenda also includes trade disputes both with friends such as the European Union as well as with competitors such as China.
Of course, the areas of disagreement between China and the United States includes more issues than only trade, and includes issues such as sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea, maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait, human rights, and developments in Hong Kong.
▲ Donald J. Trump, frequently talks about China.（Photo／Reuters）
Republican Party presidential nominee, former President Donald J. Trump, frequently talks about China, often with regard to his threat to raise tariffs to 100% on Chinese imports to the United States. Current Vice President Kamala Harris briefly mentioned China in her acceptance speech as the Democratic National Convention in August, pledging that she will make sure “America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century”.
One of the first China related decisions that the President-Elect must make is whether to repeat, during the transition period, a phone call with the Republic of China (Taiwan) president, such as the call between then-President Tsia Ing-wen and then-President Elect Trump held on December 2, 2016 during the transition period between Election Day 2016 and President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2017.
This author refers to it as a China-related decision, and not only a Taiwan-related decision. Some might want to analyze this issue as only a bilateral matter between Taiwan and the President-Elect. However, the reality is that such a call will have a significant impact on China-Taiwan-U.S. relations in the subsequent months and years.
▲ The call between then-President Tsia Ing-wen and then-President Elect Trump held on December 2, 2016.（Photo／Reuters, Yu-Kang, Lee）
The reasons why the President-Elect, and President William Lai Ching-te, should have phone call include:
1. Precedent: The precedent for such a call was set when President-Elect Trump and President Tsai held their call. Much of China-Taiwan-U.S. relations are based on precedent, such as the Taiwan president’s transit stops in the United States or Taiwan’s participation in certain international organizations such as APEC or the Asian Development Bank. Similarly, Taiwan’s inability to participate in other international organizations such as International Civil Aviation Organization, Interpol, and the World Health Organization is also based on precedent, and is unlikely to change.
2. China Does Not Determine Who the U.S. President-Elect Talks To: The President-Elect can meet with, or speak to, whoever they wish to meet with or speak to. Pressure from a foreign country such as China should not be the determining factor for who the President-Elect meets with or speaks to.
3. A Thank You for Taiwan: The President-Elect can thank Taiwan for its friendship towards the United States. This includes the goods that Taiwan imports from the United States, investment in the United States by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and other Taiwan companies, and of course, weapons sales by U.S. companies to Taiwan. As President-Elect ▲ Trump posted on Twitter after his call with President Tsai., “Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call.”
▲ Trump posted on Twitter after his call with President Tsai.（Photo／Twitter）
4. President-Elect Can Send a Signal to China: A call between the President-Elect and President Lai would send a signal to China that the United States will continue to support Taiwan just as it has in recent years. As the Taiwan government likes to say, relations between Taiwan and the United States are “rock solid”. However, even if the President-Elect has a call with President Lai, the President-Elect can also repeat that after the inauguration, the new president will remain committed to the United States’ longstanding One China policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiqués, and the Six Assurances.
5. President-Elect Can Send a Signal to Other Parts of the World: A call between the President-Elect and President Lai is also valuable as a signal to allies and enemies around the world about how the new president will conduct foreign policy. It is likely that the President-Elect will, during the transition period, meet with or speak to representatives of allied countries such as the Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and others. Including Taiwan in this group of countries will send a signal about the importance the new President puts on U.S.-Taiwan relations.
On the other hand, there are reasons why the call might not occur:
1. 2016 Call Was a “One Off” and Not a Precedent: Unfortunately for Taiwan, during the transition period between Election Day in 2020 and the inauguration on January 20, 2021, President-elect Joe Biden did not have a call with President Tsai. What could have been a two-time precedent instead, for now, is a “one off” event that occurred in 2016.
▲ A call between Vice President Harris and President Lai might similarly be something that President Biden will not agree to.（Photo／Reuters）
2. If Harris Wins, She’s Still the Incumbent Vice President: If Kamala Harris is the President-Elect, she will still, simultaneously, be the Vice President of the United States. Her boss, President Biden, might oppose a call between Harris and President Lai. Although the Biden Administration has taken many actions to show its support for Taiwan, it still has certain “red lines” that it will not cross. Examples include not agreeing to change the name of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office to “Taiwan Representative Office”, and, unlike the Trump Administration, not allowing a cabinet secretary to visit Taiwan. A call between Vice President Harris and President Lai might similarly be something that President Biden will not agree to.
3. Impact on Future U.S. – China Relations: The President-Elect might want to begin U.S.-China relations on a positive note with hope for future cooperation on various issues. For example, if Trump is elected, he might want to resume trade negotiations with China. If Kamala Harris is elected, she might want to cooperate with China on climate change, reducing the amount of fentanyl “precursor” chemicals that are exported to the United States from China, or other issues. For this reason, the President-Elect might decline to have a call with President Lai.
4. Other Priorities: In the ten weeks between election day on November 5, 2024, and the inauguration on January 20, 2025, the President-Elect will have a busy agenda. This incudes selecting staff for the new government, and meeting with or speaking to leaders of close U.S. allies. For the President-Elect, a call with President Lai might not be a high priority.
▲ If the President-Elect has a call with President Lai, there will certainly be a reaction from China.（Photo／Reuters）
5. Impact on China – Taiwan Relations: If the President-Elect has a call with President Lai, there will certainly be a reaction from China. China might respond by persuading one of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies to switch diplomatic relations to China, the use of trade retaliation measures, or military exercises near Taiwan. As we saw from China’s large scale Joint Sword 2024A military exercise after President Lai’s inauguration on May 20 of this year, or the recent Joint Sword 2024B after President Lai’s national day speech, China’s military exercises put enormous strain on Taiwan’s military, because the air force, army, and navy must take appropriate measures to respond.
China – Taiwan relations are already at a low point, and a call between the President-Elect and President Lai will only cause relations to worsen. Perhaps the safest decision for Taiwan will be to tell the President-Elect of the United States “Thank you, but no thank you.”
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