紐時賞析／俄烏戰爭進入終局？烏接連失去東部城市 指揮官駁：是消耗戰

烏克蘭國家衛隊第15旅一個砲兵連官兵本週在頓巴斯地區準備開火。（紐約時報）

Ukraine's Donbas Strategy: Retreat and Maximize Russia's Losses

烏克蘭在頓巴斯採拖字訣 讓俄軍傷亡最大化

Throughout the year, Ukraine has lost a series of cities, towns and villages in its eastern Donbas region to Russia, typically withdrawing its troops after hard-fought battles that sometimes lasted for months.

這一年來，烏克蘭在東部頓巴斯地區失去一連串城市、城鎮和村莊，通常在歷經艱苦戰鬥後撤軍，這些戰鬥有時持續數月。

Marinka was the first to fall, a sign in January that Russia had regained momentum on the battlefield. Then came Avdiivka, an industrial city where Ukrainian soldiers had hunkered down in a dense maze of trenches and bunkers. Finally, this past week, Ukraine retreated from Vuhledar, a mining town perched on high ground that was a linchpin of Ukrainian defenses in the southeast.

馬林卡率先淪陷，這是俄軍1月在戰場上重獲動力的跡象。接着是工業城市阿瓦迪夫卡，烏軍曾堅守在當地密集如迷宮的壕溝和掩體中。最後，在過去一週，烏軍撤離位於一處高地的礦業城鎮胡歷達爾，此地是烏克蘭東南部防衛關鍵。

To outside observers, Ukraine’s slow but steady retreat from the Donbas region, the main theater of the war today, may seem to signal the beginning of the endgame, with Russia firmly gaining the upper hand on the battlefield, leveraging its overwhelming advantage in manpower and firepower.

對於外部觀察家而言，烏克蘭緩慢但持續撤離當前主戰場頓巴斯地區，似乎顯示終局的開始；俄軍利用其兵力和火力的壓倒性優勢，在戰場上穩定佔上風。

But Ukrainian commanders and military experts dispute that, saying that a more crucial fight is unfolding in the region that goes beyond simple territorial gains and losses. It is now a war of attrition, they say, with each side trying to exhaust the other by inflicting maximum losses, hoping to break the enemy’s capacity and will to continue the war.

但烏克蘭指揮官和軍事專家對此不贊同，稱該地區正展開更關鍵的戰鬥，超越單純的領土得失。他們表示，這是場消耗戰，雙方試圖透過造成最大損失拖垮對方，希望能破壞敵人繼續作戰的能力和意願。

Ukraine, a country that is a fraction of the size of Russia and with about a third of the population, is at an inherent disadvantage. It has fewer men to send to the front and despite an influx of Western military aid remains largely outgunned on the battlefield. That has left Ukraine with little choice but to retreat from towns under attack after exacting the highest price it can on manpower and materiel.

烏克蘭國土面積僅是俄羅斯面積的一小部分，人口則是俄羅斯的三分之一，處於先天劣勢。烏克蘭能派去戰場的人數較少，而且儘管西方軍事援助涌入，他們的火力多半仍落後。這使烏克蘭幾乎別無選擇，只能在人力物力付出最大代價後，從受到攻擊的城鎮撤退。

With Russia so far proving capable of absorbing its losses by recruiting more soldiers and ramping up arms production, it remains unclear how much territory Ukraine will have to give up before the Russian army runs out of steam — if it ever does.

到目前爲止，俄軍已證明他們能透過招募更多官兵和增產武器吸收損失，尚不清楚烏克蘭要放棄多少領土才能讓俄軍精疲力竭，如果俄軍真有那麼一天的話。

Ukraine ultimately hopes that Russia’s mounting losses will make the war unsustainable for the Kremlin before it becomes so for Ukraine.

烏克蘭最終希望俄羅斯損失增加，會讓克里姆林宮覺得戰爭無法再打下去，而且要在烏克蘭無以爲繼之前。

But how realistic is this strategy? President Vladimir Putin of Russia has put his country’s economy on war footing and has shown no sign that he is prepared to quit the fight.

但這個策略有多務實？俄羅斯總統普亭已讓國家經濟處於戰備狀態，也沒有任何跡象顯示他準備結束戰鬥。

文／Constant Méheut　譯／羅方妤