方恩格專欄》就職演說後 賴清德的挑戰纔開始

中華民國第16任總統、副總統宣誓就職典禮20日舉行，新任的賴清德總統（右）宣誓就職，由司法院長許宗力（左）監誓。（臺北市攝影記者聯誼會提供）

5月20日，賴清德宣誓就任中華民國第16任總統。在就職典禮之前，外界就已經對賴清德的就職演說內容有許多猜測；而在賴總統發表演說後的幾天裡，臺灣及海外的專家們便對他的言論進行了分析，特別是涉及兩岸關係的部分。在及格／不及格的評分標準下，賴清德可以得個「及格」的評價；然而，艱難的挑戰將持續出現在往後的4年裡。

今年5月初，筆者在《中國時報》撰寫的文裡提到了賴總統就職演說中值得關注的五件事。而現在，就讓我們一起來回顧一下這五件事分別是哪些，以及賴總統實際說了什麼。

一、務實臺獨工作者：2017年9月26日，當時還在擔任行政院長的賴清德在立法院中自稱「務實的臺獨工作者」。而賴總統在就職演說中，並未重複這個說法。筆者在前文時就有提到，賴清德在擔任行政院長時可以輕而易舉地說出這句話，但在擔任總統時重申，就變得困難許多。

至於在就職演說裡，與中國議題相關討論的最大重點究竟爲何，不同專家持有不同看法。筆者注意到，賴總統曾說過他將秉持前總統蔡英文在2021年國慶演說中所提出的「四個堅持」。然而，賴總統在就職演說中並未列舉這「四個堅持」的具體內容是什麼。許多有觀看或閱讀賴總統就職演說的人，是否還記得蔡英文總統所謂的「四個堅持」是什麼呢？它們是：堅持自由民主的憲政體制、堅持中華民國與中華人民共和國互不隸屬、堅持主權不容侵犯併吞，以及堅持中華民國臺灣的前途必須要遵循全體臺灣人民的意志。除了「中華民國與中華人民共和國互不隸屬」之外，蔡總統在過去幾年中很少提及其他三個堅持。

二、稱呼中國的方式：筆者曾預言賴清德將會在他的就職演說中多次提及「中國」，而事實也的確如此。賴總統在演講中提到「中國」7次，並以其官方名稱「中華人民共和國」來稱呼中國大陸。賴總統並未使用「對岸」或「大陸地區」等字眼來描述。值得注意的是，賴清德完全沒有提到他將會依據《兩岸人民關係條例》來處理與兩岸事務，儘管蔡英文在她2016年的就職演說中曾承諾「新政府會依據《中華民國憲法》、《兩岸人民關係條例》及其他相關法律，處理兩岸事務」。無獨有偶，賴總統也使用了「主權」這個詞7次。或許在未來幾個月乃至數年裡，賴總統將反覆強調「主權」，以取代他先前作爲一名務實臺獨工作者的說法。

三、對中華民國的提及：筆者曾預期賴總統會在他的演說中稱呼國家爲「中華民國」1、2次，例如，當他在演說一開始指出自己已經宣誓就任中華民國總統時，或是在他承諾遵守《中華民國憲法》時。事實上，賴總統共稱呼國家爲「中華民國」9次。此外，筆者也曾預期賴總統稱呼國家爲「臺灣」的次數將會遠多於「中華民國」的次數，事實的確如此。賴總統在他的就職演說的中文版本里共提到了「臺灣」87次，而在英文版本中提到了105次。

四、經濟：蔡英文總統在2016年的就職演說中，很大一部分都是在談論經濟政策。蔡英文總統呼籲了「經濟結構的轉型」。蔡英文還表示臺灣將爭取成爲區域貿易協定《跨太平洋夥伴關係協議》（TPP）和《區域全面經濟夥伴協定》（RCEP）的會員國。賴總統也提到，「臺灣已經申請加入《跨太平洋夥伴全面進展協定》（CPTPP），我們會積極爭取加入區域經濟整合。」除此之外，賴總統提到半導體4次，人工智慧2次。賴總統還表示，「臺灣」是「全球民主供應鏈」的關鍵。這些聲明也許是在針對美國政府，因爲美國越來越關注半導體和技術供應鏈。

賴總統總共提到了「經濟」10次，但這些國內政策議題的部分在就職演說中顯得有些倉促。賴總統也提及了許多關乎公衆的經濟和社會政策議題，儘管他並沒有提出具體的政策建議。這些議題包括「更好的薪資環境」、「治安更好」、「打擊黑金、槍、毒和詐騙」、「供電穩定」、「第二次能源轉型」，保證「只要政府在，勞保絕對不會倒」，承諾「打造符合人本的交通環境」，以及「幫助家庭照顧者減輕負擔，以及協助產業改善缺工的困境」。最後，賴總統還表示，「我們必須堅定地落實2050淨零轉型」，並承諾「協助中小企業升級轉型」。或許當賴總統需要出席立法院並發表國情報告時，可以在那裡提出具體的經濟和能源政策。

五、與在野黨的關係：在就職典禮前，筆者曾推測賴總統是否會提到他所屬的民進黨在立法院是處於少數地位的這個事實。當時，我們還無法預想5月17日在立法院會發生一場包括不同政黨立委間的激烈衝突。在這方面，賴總統表示「多數尊重少數，少數服從多數，才能避免衝突，維持社會的安定和諧。」我們不應指望立委們會遵循賴總統的期望。換句話說，在未來的4年裡，比起和諧的關係，預期立法院與總統府及行政院之間的關係將會是更多的不和諧。

總而言之，賴總統的就職演說是一項艱難的任務。他必須避免觸及拜登政府所設下的任何「紅線」，尤其是不要重複他是「務實的臺獨工作者」這個說法。同時，他還必須對臺灣的國際地位發表一些言論，以滿足40%投票給他的選民。此外，他還必須討論除了兩岸關係以外的其他議題，就如同他試圖提及許多經濟和社會政策議題。

不幸的是，由於伊朗總統在就職演說的前一天在直升機失事中罹難，以至於國際媒體對臺灣新總統的關注減少，且中國大陸隨之而來的軍事演習也將導致賴總統的就職演說在臺灣公衆的記憶裡被迅速淡忘。儘管如此，賴清德總統的就職演說仍然拿到一個及格分。在未來4年，執政臺灣將會帶給他更艱難的任務！

（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席，許淳恩翻譯）

原文

Grading President Lai's Inaugural Address

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

@RossFeingold

On May 20th, William Lai was inaugurated as the Republic of China’s 16th-term President. Prior to the inauguration there was much speculation as to what Lai would say in his inaugural address, and in the days after President Lai’s inaugural address experts in Taiwan as well as overseas have analyzed what President Lai said, especially with regard to Taiwan’s relationship with Mainland China.

On a pass/fail grading scale, President Lai certainly deserves a “pass”; the difficult challenges will be subsequent to the inaugural address and last four years.

In early May, this author wrote in this newspaper about five things to watch for in President Lai’s inaugural address. Let’s review those five versus what Lai actually said.

1. Practical Worker for Taiwan Independence: On September 26, 2017 in the Legislative Yuan when he was Premier, President Lai described himself as a “practical worker for Taiwan independence”. President Lai did not repeat this statement in his inaugural address. This author wrote in early May that it is easy for Lai to say this when he was Premier, but more difficult to say it when he is President.

Different experts have different opinions about which was the most important parts of the China related discussion in the inaugural address. This author noted that President Lai said he would adhere to the “Four Commitments” enunciated by former President Tsai Ing-wen in her 2021 National Day address. However, President Lai didn’t list the “Four Commitments”. Do many people who watched or read President Lai’s inaugural address remember what President Tsai’s “Four Commitments” are? They are enduring commitment to a free and democratic constitutional system, commitment that the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China should not be subordinate to each other, commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon Taiwan’s sovereignty, and commitment that the future of the Republic of China (Taiwan) must be decided in accordance with the will of the Taiwanese people.

Even this author had to re-read former President Tsai’s 2021 National Day address to refresh his memory what the Four Commitments are, especially as, other than the “Republic of China and the People's Republic of China should not be subordinate to each”, President Tsai rarely mentioned the other three commitments over the past few years.

2. References to China: This author expected Lai would refer to “China” throughout his inaugural address, and President Lai was consistent with this prediction. President Lai referred to the mainland as “China” seven times, and, referred one time to the mainland by its official name, the People’s Republic of China. Lai did not use descriptions such as “the other side” (對岸) or “mainland area” (大陸地區). Notably, President Lai did not mention even one time that he would conduct relations with China in accordance with the Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area. Former President Tsai, in her 2016 inaugural address, had pledged that the “The new government will conduct cross-Strait affairs in accordance with the Republic of China Constitution, the Act Governing Relations Between the People of Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area, and other relevant legislation”.

Coincidentally, Lai also used seven times the word sovereignty (主權). Perhaps in the coming months and years, Lai will repeatedly emphasize “sovereignty” as a replacement for his earlier statement to be a practical worker for Taiwan’s independence.

3. References to the Republic of China: This author expected President Lai to refer to the Republic of China once or twice, such as the beginning of his address when he notes that he has taken the oath of office as the Republic of China president, or, when he pledges to uphold the Republic of China Constitution. In fact, President Lai referred to the Republic of China twelve times. This author expected President Lai to refer to Taiwan many more times than he refers to the Republic of China, and President Lai certainly did this. Including the paragraph headings, President Lai referred to Taiwan eighty-seven times in the Mandarin version of his inaugural address and one hundred and five times in the English version.

4. Economy: A large portion of President Tsai’s 2016 inaugural address was devoted to talking about the economy. President Tsai called for “Transforming Economic Structures”. Tsai also said Taiwan would pursue membership in the regional trade agreements the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. President Lai also noted that “Taiwan has officially applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and we will continue to engage actively in regional economic integration.” President Lai referred to semiconductors four times, and artificial intelligence two times. President Lai also said that “We are a key player in supply chains for global democracies”. Perhaps these statements were meant for the United States government, which is increasingly concerned about semiconductors and technology supply chains.

President Lai mentioned “economy” ten times, but these domestic policy issues parts of the inaugural came across as somewhat rushed. President Lai referred to many economic and social policy issues that are important to the public, though he did not offer specific policy suggestions. These items included an "even better wage environment", "more effective public safety" a "crack down on corruption and organized crime, guns, drugs, and fraud", a "stable supply of electricity", a “second energy transition", a pledge that "labor insurance will not fail under our government", a pledge to "create a human-friendly transportation environment", and a pledge to "help lighten the load for family caregivers and work to solve the labor shortage issue". President Lai also said “we must be resolved in our transition to net-zero emissions by the year 2050”, and he pledged to “assist small- and medium-sized enterprises as they upgrade and transform”.

Perhaps President Lai will share specific policies when, and if, he is required to appear before the Legislative Yuan to deliver a state of the nation address.

5. Relationship With the Opposition: Prior to the inauguration this author speculated as to whether or not Lai will refer to the reality that his Democratic Progressive Party is in the Legislative Yuan minority. Of course, at the time, we could not imagine the extraordinary events on May 17 in the Legislative Yuan, which included fighting between legislators of different parties. In this regard, President Lai said that “The majority should respect the minority, while the minority accepts majority rule. Only then can we avoid conflict and maintain a stable and harmonious society”. We should not expect legislators to adhere to President Lai’s hopes. In other words, for the next four years we should expect that Legislative Yuan relations with the Presidential Office and Executive Yuan will be more disharmony and not much harmony.

In conclusion, President Lai had a difficult task in his inaugural address. He had to avoid any “red lines” imposed by the Biden Administration, most notably not to repeat he is a practical worker for Taiwan independence. At the same, he had to say something about Taiwan’s status to satisfy the 40% of voters who voted for him. He also had to discuss things other than cross-strait relations, which he tried to do when he mentioned many economic and social policy issues.

Unfortunately for President Lai, the death of Iran’s president in a helicopter crash one day prior to the inaugural address resulted in less international media attention to Taiwan’s new president, and the mainland’s subsequent military exercises will cause memories of President Lai’s inaugural address to quickly fade among the public in Taiwan.

Regardless, President Lai’s inaugural address deserves a passing grade. Governing Taiwan for the next four years will be a more difficult assignment!